📚 Class Preparation

2025/26 Autumn Term

Author

The DS101 Team

Published

22 October 2025

🗺️ Context

This week, we’ll explore our first case study!

We are going to look in depth at the Ofqual’s A-levels “mutant algorithm” fiasco - a pivotal case that illustrates the dangers of poor algorithmic design (Paulden 2020) (Kelly 2021) (Hern 2020).

In 2020, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, both A-levels and GCSE exams were cancelled in England and Ofqual, the regulator of qualifications, exams and tests in England was tasked by the then secretary of state for education to “ensure, as far as is possible, that qualification standards are maintained and the distribution of grades follows a similar profile to that in previous years”.

Ofqual then produced an algorithm to compute the A-levels grades. After public outcry and criticism, the grades computed by the algorithm had to be withdrawn(Sabbagh 2020).

📖 Class Preparation

Step 1: Take a look at the linear regression output in the class page. Try to research the following:

What are regression coefficients? How do we interpret them?
What does goodness of fit mean?
How does r-squared differ when compared to root mean squared error as a measure of goodness of fit?

💡Tip: If you want a generative AI solution to these questions, try taking a screenshot of the regression output and ask Claude to interpret the results.

Step 2: Please read the following articles before the week 4 class.

🗞️ In the news

Sabbagh, Dan. 2020. “Algorithm and blues: Gavin Williamson’s week of A-level chaos.” The Guardian, August.
Hern, Alex. 2020. “Ofqual’s A-level algorithm: why did it fail to make the grade?” The Guardian, August.

🎓 Academic

Kelly, Anthony. 2021. “A tale of two algorithms: The appeal and repeal of calculated grades systems in England and Ireland in 2020.” British Educational Research Journal 47: 725–741.
Paulden, Tim. 2020. “A Cutting Re-Mark.” Significance 17 (5): 4–5, October 2020.

🕸️ LSE Blogs

““F**k the algorithm”?: What the world can learn from the UK’s A-level grading fiasco” LSE Impact Blog.

Step 3: After you’ve read the articles, consider the following question:

What was the objective the OFQUAL algorithm was trying to optimise?
Did the algorithm achieve its purpose?
Was the OFQUAL algorithm a good idea? Why, why not?

References

Hern, Alex. 2020. “Ofqual’s a-Level Algorithm: Why Did It Fail to Make the Grade?” The Guardian (London). https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/aug/21/ofqual-exams-algorithm-why-did-it-fail-make-grade-a-levels.

Kelly, Anthony. 2021. “A Tale of Two Algorithms: The Appeal and Repeal of Calculated Grades Systems in England and Ireland in 2020.” British Educational Research Journal 47 (3): 725–41. https://doi.org/10.1002/berj.3705.

Paulden, Tim. 2020. “A Cutting Re-Mark.” Significance 17 (5): 4–5. https://doi.org/10.1111/1740-9713.01436.

Sabbagh, Dan. 2020. “Algorithm and Blues: Gavin Williamson’s Week of a-Level Chaos.” The Guardian, August. https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/aug/21/gavin-williamson-week-of-a-level-chaos.