DS101W Week 03 - Exploratory Data Analysis Notebook

2023/24 Winter Term

Author

Published

29 January 2024

The content below recaps the content of the exploratory data analysis demo from the Week 03 lecture. The demo explored a dataset from Kaggle about inflation rates across 206 countries from 1970 to 2022.

Click on the button below to download the source files (.csv dataset and .ipynb notebook) that were used to create this page, if you ever want to try the demo for yourselves:

(this is a zip file because there are source code files in it)

Python library imports

For the purposes of this analysis, we are importing the “usual suspect” libraries for data and string manipulation (i.e pandas, numpy and re), path manipulation (os and glob) but also a whole host of libraries for visualisation and a library for time series modeling/forecasting (statsmodels.tsa.arima.model).

#library for the manipulation of dates
import datetime
# library for the manipulation of strings
import re
# libraries for the manipulation of data (data frames)
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
# libraries for the manipulation of (file) paths
import os
import glob
# libraries for visualisation and plotting
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import seaborn as sns
import plotly.graph_objects as go
import plotly.subplots as sp
import plotly.graph_objs as go
from IPython.display import display_html
# library for time series modelling
from statsmodels.tsa.arima.model import ARIMA

Reading the data file

f='Global_Dataset_of_Inflation.csv'
df = pd.read_csv(f)

UnicodeDecodeError: 'utf-8' codec can't decode byte 0xf4 in position 12585: invalid continuation byte

A first try at reading the .csv file that contains the dataset results in an error that shows that the file is not encoded in the default UTF-8 format (the pandas read_csv function expects an UTF-8 encoding by default). A quick analysis of the error message shows that the file is in fact encoded in ISO-8859-1 format, so we’ll have to pass an optional encoding argument to read_csv to allow it to read the file correctly.

df = pd.read_csv('Global_Dataset_of_Inflation.csv',encoding='ISO-8859-1')
df

	Country Code	IMF Country Code	Country	Indicator Type	Series Name	1970	1971	1972	1973	1974	...	2019	2020	2021	2022	Note	Unnamed: 59	Unnamed: 60	Unnamed: 61	Unnamed: 62	Unnamed: 63
0	ABW	314.0	Aruba	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	...	4.26	1.22	0.74	6.04	Annual average inflation	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN
1	AFG	512.0	Afghanistan	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	25.51	25.51	-12.52	-10.68	10.23	...	2.30	5.44	5.06	NaN	Annual average inflation	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN
2	AGO	614.0	Angola	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	7.97	5.78	15.80	15.67	27.42	...	17.08	21.02	23.85	21.35	Annual average inflation	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN
3	ALB	914.0	Albania	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	...	1.41	1.62	2.04	6.73	Annual average inflation	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN
4	ARE	466.0	United Arab Emirates	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	21.98	21.98	21.98	21.98	21.98	...	-1.93	-2.08	0.18	5.22	Annual average inflation	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN
...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...
778	VEN	299.0	Venezuela, RB	Inflation	Producer Price Inflation	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	...	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	Producer Price Index, All Commodities	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN
779	VNM	582.0	Vietnam	Inflation	Producer Price Inflation	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	...	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	Producer Price Index, All Commodities	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN
780	XKX	967.0	Kosovo	Inflation	Producer Price Inflation	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	...	0.93	-0.58	4.92	NaN	Producer Price Index, All Commodities	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN
781	ZAF	199.0	South Africa	Inflation	Producer Price Inflation	NaN	5.00	6.35	12.44	18.58	...	4.62	2.49	7.12	14.36	Producer Price Index, All Commodities	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN
782	ZMB	754.0	Zambia	Inflation	Producer Price Inflation	14.29	0.00	4.17	12.00	10.71	...	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	Producer Price Index, All Commodities	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN

783 rows × 64 columns

Exploring the dataframe

We start by printing the first few rows of our dataframe (the first 5 by default) to get a sense of what our dataset looks like.

print(df.head())

  Country Code  IMF Country Code               Country Indicator Type  \
0          ABW             314.0                 Aruba      Inflation   
1          AFG             512.0           Afghanistan      Inflation   
2          AGO             614.0                Angola      Inflation   
3          ALB             914.0               Albania      Inflation   
4          ARE             466.0  United Arab Emirates      Inflation   

                         Series Name   1970   1971   1972   1973   1974  ...  \
0  Headline Consumer Price Inflation    NaN    NaN    NaN    NaN    NaN  ...   
1  Headline Consumer Price Inflation  25.51  25.51 -12.52 -10.68  10.23  ...   
2  Headline Consumer Price Inflation   7.97   5.78  15.80  15.67  27.42  ...   
3  Headline Consumer Price Inflation    NaN    NaN    NaN    NaN    NaN  ...   
4  Headline Consumer Price Inflation  21.98  21.98  21.98  21.98  21.98  ...   

    2019   2020   2021   2022                      Note  Unnamed: 59  \
0   4.26   1.22   0.74   6.04  Annual average inflation          NaN   
1   2.30   5.44   5.06    NaN  Annual average inflation          NaN   
2  17.08  21.02  23.85  21.35  Annual average inflation          NaN   
3   1.41   1.62   2.04   6.73  Annual average inflation          NaN   
4  -1.93  -2.08   0.18   5.22  Annual average inflation          NaN   

   Unnamed: 60  Unnamed: 61  Unnamed: 62  Unnamed: 63  
0          NaN          NaN          NaN          NaN  
1          NaN          NaN          NaN          NaN  
2          NaN          NaN          NaN          NaN  
3          NaN          NaN          NaN          NaN  
4          NaN          NaN          NaN          NaN  

[5 rows x 64 columns]

We use the describe command to get some basic statistics about our dataframe.

df.describe()

	IMF Country Code	1970	1971	1972	1973	1974	1975	1976	1977	1978	...	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	Unnamed: 60	Unnamed: 61	Unnamed: 62	Unnamed: 63
count	781.000000	422.000000	428.000000	430.000000	430.000000	434.000000	434.000000	430.000000	427.000000	428.000000	...	737.000000	737.000000	728.000000	719.000000	706.000000	665.000000	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
mean	536.507042	5.867854	6.057173	7.705721	14.538465	24.174101	16.539424	15.472047	15.123021	12.062360	...	7.263428	503.428544	80.269581	36.131405	16.324632	17.285654	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN
std	271.783250	7.283523	8.617909	11.701059	28.889492	39.117175	28.749170	37.833455	27.881710	18.019203	...	41.968311	7659.291543	1183.454979	649.033623	107.667579	32.234102	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN
min	111.000000	-26.098150	-19.700000	-12.520000	-13.240000	-35.940000	-42.670000	-10.900000	-22.020000	-23.800000	...	-13.310000	-14.400000	-16.360000	-31.430000	-5.080000	-1.970000	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN
25%	283.000000	1.640000	1.900000	3.015000	6.000000	11.355000	7.257500	4.900000	6.090000	4.375000	...	1.120000	1.270000	0.687500	0.100000	1.730000	5.450000	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN
50%	546.000000	4.360000	4.695000	5.590000	9.930000	17.545000	12.310000	9.585000	10.120000	8.285000	...	2.450000	2.490000	2.065000	1.880000	4.255000	9.110000	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN
75%	732.000000	7.670000	7.625000	8.775000	15.900000	28.260000	18.677500	15.975000	15.550000	12.925000	...	5.420000	4.810000	4.300000	4.170000	8.907500	17.530000	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN
max	968.000000	61.000000	94.500000	115.200000	376.500000	513.700000	374.740000	510.700000	458.600000	175.510000	...	905.660000	169201.780000	19906.020000	17087.720000	1934.560000	433.190000	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN

8 rows × 58 columns

And we print out the dataframe column names.

df.columns

Index(['Country Code', 'IMF Country Code', 'Country', 'Indicator Type',
       'Series Name', '1970', '1971', '1972', '1973', '1974', '1975', '1976',
       '1977', '1978', '1979', '1980', '1981', '1982', '1983', '1984', '1985',
       '1986', '1987', '1988', '1989', '1990', '1991', '1992', '1993', '1994',
       '1995', '1996', '1997', '1998', '1999', '2000', '2001', '2002', '2003',
       '2004', '2005', '2006', '2007', '2008', '2009', '2010', '2011', '2012',
       '2013', '2014', '2015', '2016', '2017', '2018', '2019', '2020', '2021',
       '2022', 'Note', 'Unnamed: 59', 'Unnamed: 60', 'Unnamed: 61',
       'Unnamed: 62', 'Unnamed: 63'],
      dtype='object')

From this initial exploration, we see that we have some rather uninteresting non-descript columns (the Unnamed : 59,…Unnamed : 63 columns), plenty of missing values to take care of (NaN values) and also that we will need to do some column name processing (many column names have spaces in them, which can be awkward to deal with when querying in particular).

Processing the dataframe to remove unnecessary columns and format the names of retained columns appropriately

We start by writing a function to process the previous dataframe to remove all unnecessary columns (i.e all Unnamed : x columns where x is a number between 59 and 63) and format the names of the columns we retain appropriately (i.e replace all spaces and special characters in column names by underscores and make all column names lowercase).

def import_and_process_csv(csv_file_path):
    """
    This function reads a CSV file, processes the column names by converting them to lowercase, replacing spaces
    with underscores, replacing special characters with underscores, and removing the specified 'Unnamed' columns.

    Args:
        csv_file_path (str): The path to the CSV file.

    Returns:
        pd.DataFrame: The processed DataFrame.
    """

    # Read the data from the CSV file into a DataFrame
    data = pd.read_csv(csv_file_path, encoding='ISO-8859-1')

    # Convert column names to lowercase
    data.columns = [col.lower() for col in data.columns]

    # Replace spaces with underscores (_)
    data.columns = [col.replace(' ', '_') for col in data.columns]

    # Replace special characters with underscores (_)
    data.columns = [re.sub(r'\W+', '_', col) for col in data.columns]

    # Remove the specified 'Unnamed' columns
    columns_to_remove = ['unnamed__59', 'unnamed__60', 'unnamed__61', 'unnamed__62', 'unnamed__63']
    data = data.drop(columns_to_remove, axis=1, errors='ignore')

    return data

data=import_and_process_csv(f)
data

	country_code	imf_country_code	country	indicator_type	series_name	1970	1971	1972	1973	1974	...	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	note
0	ABW	314.0	Aruba	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	...	0.42	0.48	-0.89	-0.47	3.58	4.26	1.22	0.74	6.04	Annual average inflation
1	AFG	512.0	Afghanistan	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	25.51	25.51	-12.52	-10.68	10.23	...	4.67	-0.66	4.38	4.98	0.63	2.30	5.44	5.06	NaN	Annual average inflation
2	AGO	614.0	Angola	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	7.97	5.78	15.80	15.67	27.42	...	7.30	9.16	32.38	29.84	19.63	17.08	21.02	23.85	21.35	Annual average inflation
3	ALB	914.0	Albania	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	...	1.62	1.91	1.29	1.99	2.03	1.41	1.62	2.04	6.73	Annual average inflation
4	ARE	466.0	United Arab Emirates	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	21.98	21.98	21.98	21.98	21.98	...	2.34	4.07	1.62	1.97	3.06	-1.93	-2.08	0.18	5.22	Annual average inflation
...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...
778	VEN	299.0	Venezuela, RB	Inflation	Producer Price Inflation	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	...	60.47	142.03	291.62	905.66	169201.78	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	Producer Price Index, All Commodities
779	VNM	582.0	Vietnam	Inflation	Producer Price Inflation	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	...	3.26	-0.59	-0.61	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	Producer Price Index, All Commodities
780	XKX	967.0	Kosovo	Inflation	Producer Price Inflation	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	...	1.63	2.66	-0.07	0.59	1.35	0.93	-0.58	4.92	NaN	Producer Price Index, All Commodities
781	ZAF	199.0	South Africa	Inflation	Producer Price Inflation	NaN	5.00	6.35	12.44	18.58	...	7.40	3.61	7.08	4.88	5.45	4.62	2.49	7.12	14.36	Producer Price Index, All Commodities
782	ZMB	754.0	Zambia	Inflation	Producer Price Inflation	14.29	0.00	4.17	12.00	10.71	...	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	Producer Price Index, All Commodities

783 rows × 59 columns

data.head(5)

	country_code	imf_country_code	country	indicator_type	series_name	1970	1971	1972	1973	1974	...	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	note
0	ABW	314.0	Aruba	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	...	0.42	0.48	-0.89	-0.47	3.58	4.26	1.22	0.74	6.04	Annual average inflation
1	AFG	512.0	Afghanistan	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	25.51	25.51	-12.52	-10.68	10.23	...	4.67	-0.66	4.38	4.98	0.63	2.30	5.44	5.06	NaN	Annual average inflation
2	AGO	614.0	Angola	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	7.97	5.78	15.80	15.67	27.42	...	7.30	9.16	32.38	29.84	19.63	17.08	21.02	23.85	21.35	Annual average inflation
3	ALB	914.0	Albania	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	...	1.62	1.91	1.29	1.99	2.03	1.41	1.62	2.04	6.73	Annual average inflation
4	ARE	466.0	United Arab Emirates	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	21.98	21.98	21.98	21.98	21.98	...	2.34	4.07	1.62	1.97	3.06	-1.93	-2.08	0.18	5.22	Annual average inflation

5 rows × 59 columns

Creating a `continent` column in the `data` dataframe after defining a country to continent mapping

We first create a dictionary that maps the country_code value to a continent value then use it to create a new continent column in our data dataframe.

# Define the mapping of country_code to continent
country_code_to_continent = {
    'AUS': 'Oceania',
    'AUT': 'Europe',
    'BEL': 'Europe',
    'BGR': 'Europe',
    'BLR': 'Europe',
    'BRA': 'South America',
    'CAN': 'North America',
    'CHE': 'Europe',
    'CHL': 'South America',
    'CHN': 'Asia',
    'COL': 'South America',
    'CRI': 'North America',
    'CYP': 'Asia',
    'CZE': 'Europe',
    'DEU': 'Europe',
    'DNK': 'Europe',
    'EGY': 'Africa',
    'ESP': 'Europe',
    'ETH': 'Africa',
    'FIN': 'Europe',
    'FRA': 'Europe',
    'GBR': 'Europe',
    'GHA': 'Africa',
    'GRC': 'Europe',
    'GTM': 'North America',
    'HUN': 'Europe',
    'IND': 'Asia',
    'IRL': 'Europe',
    'IRN': 'Asia',
    'ISL': 'Europe',
    'ISR': 'Asia',
    'ITA': 'Europe',
    'JOR': 'Asia',
    'JPN': 'Asia',
    'KOR': 'Asia',
    'KWT': 'Asia',
    'LKA': 'Asia',
    'LUX': 'Europe',
    'MAR': 'Africa',
    'MEX': 'North America',
    'MLT': 'Europe',
    'MUS': 'Africa',
    'MYS': 'Asia',
    'NIC': 'North America',
    'NLD': 'Europe',
    'NOR': 'Europe',
    'NZL': 'Oceania',
    'OMN': 'Asia',
    'PER': 'South America',
    'PHL': 'Asia',
    'POL': 'Europe',
    'PRT': 'Europe',
    'PRY': 'South America',
    'QAT': 'Asia',
    'ROU': 'Europe',
    'RUS': 'Europe',
    'RWA': 'Africa',
    'SAU': 'Asia',
    'SDN': 'Africa',
    'SEN': 'Africa',
    'SGP': 'Asia',
    'SLV': 'North America',
    'SVN': 'Europe',
    'SWE': 'Europe',
    'THA': 'Asia',
    'TTO': 'North America',
    'TUN': 'Africa',
    'TUR': 'Europe',
    'UGA': 'Africa',
    'UKR': 'Europe',
    'URY': 'South America',
    'USA': 'North America',
    'VEN': 'South America',
    'VNM': 'Asia',
    'ZAF': 'Africa'
}

# Create a new 'continent' column based on the 'country_code' column using the mapping defined above
data['continent'] = data['country_code'].map(country_code_to_continent)

# Print the first 5 rows of the DataFrame to verify the changes
data.head()

	country_code	imf_country_code	country	indicator_type	series_name	1970	1971	1972	1973	1974	...	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	note	continent
0	ABW	314.0	Aruba	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	...	0.48	-0.89	-0.47	3.58	4.26	1.22	0.74	6.04	Annual average inflation	NaN
1	AFG	512.0	Afghanistan	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	25.51	25.51	-12.52	-10.68	10.23	...	-0.66	4.38	4.98	0.63	2.30	5.44	5.06	NaN	Annual average inflation	NaN
2	AGO	614.0	Angola	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	7.97	5.78	15.80	15.67	27.42	...	9.16	32.38	29.84	19.63	17.08	21.02	23.85	21.35	Annual average inflation	NaN
3	ALB	914.0	Albania	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	...	1.91	1.29	1.99	2.03	1.41	1.62	2.04	6.73	Annual average inflation	NaN
4	ARE	466.0	United Arab Emirates	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	21.98	21.98	21.98	21.98	21.98	...	4.07	1.62	1.97	3.06	-1.93	-2.08	0.18	5.22	Annual average inflation	NaN

5 rows × 60 columns

Querying the United Kingdom data

We want to try and visualise the data relative to the United Kingdom present in the data dataframe. To do that, we use the query function to make a make a query as shown below.

data.query('country=="United Kingdom"')

	country_code	imf_country_code	country	indicator_type	series_name	1970	1971	1972	1973	1974	...	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	note	continent
62	GBR	112.0	United Kingdom	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	6.37000	9.44	7.07	9.20	16.04	...	0.40	1.00	2.68	2.32	1.79	0.99	2.50	7.90	Annual average inflation	Europe
260	GBR	112.0	United Kingdom	Inflation	Energy Consumer Price Inflation	5.70000	10.40	7.80	2.80	26.40	...	1.25	1.68	2.04	1.86	2.08	0.88	9.11	46.18	Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuel	Europe
434	GBR	112.0	United Kingdom	Inflation	Food Consumer Price Inflation	6.90000	11.47	8.92	15.37	18.02	...	-2.58	-2.38	2.25	2.08	10.93	0.72	0.30	10.35	Food and non-acoholic beverage	Europe
586	GBR	112.0	United Kingdom	Inflation	Official Core Consumer Price Inflation	-3.41356	9.11	6.83	8.62	13.83	...	1.30	1.60	2.30	1.90	1.70	1.50	2.30	5.26	All Items Excluding ex Reg Pr & Fuel for Veh &...	Europe
705	GBR	112.0	United Kingdom	Inflation	Producer Price Inflation	7.05000	9.01	5.17	7.49	22.28	...	-6.64	1.97	6.11	3.70	0.82	-0.06	5.04	17.17	Producer Price Index, All Commodities	Europe

5 rows × 60 columns

Exploring `data` dataframe column properties

# Count the unique values in the 'indicator_type' column
unique_indicator_types = data['indicator_type'].nunique()

# Print the number of unique indicator types
print("Number of indicator_type :", unique_indicator_types)

# Count the unique values in the 'note' column
unique_note= data['note'].nunique()

# Print the number of unique notes
print("Number of note :", unique_note)

# Count the unique values in the 'country_code' column
country_code = data['country_code'].nunique()

# Print the number of unique `country_code` values
print("Number of country code :", country_code)

# Print the number of unique `series_name` values
serie_name = data['series_name'].nunique()

# Print the number of unique `series_name` values
print("Number of serie_name :", serie_name)

# Store the unique `series_name` values
serie_names = data['series_name'].unique()

Number of indicator_type : 1
Number of note : 39
Number of country code : 206
Number of serie_name : 5

# Print the unique notes
print("Notes unique in the column 'serie_name' :")
for note in serie_names:
    print(note)

Notes unique in the column 'serie_name' :
Headline Consumer Price Inflation
Energy Consumer Price Inflation
Food Consumer Price Inflation
Official Core Consumer Price Inflation
Producer Price Inflation

# Group data by 'serie_name' and count the unique 'country_code' in each group
country_count_by_series = data.groupby('series_name')['country_code'].nunique()

# Print the number of unique country_code for each serie_name
print("Number of country_code split by serie_name :")
print(country_count_by_series)

Number of country_code split by serie_name :
series_name
Energy Consumer Price Inflation           171
Food Consumer Price Inflation             180
Headline Consumer Price Inflation         203
Official Core Consumer Price Inflation    113
Producer Price Inflation                  113
Name: country_code, dtype: int64

Filter dataframe to only keep data from countries with complete data from 1980 to 2022 (i.e no NaN or null values)

We filter the data to only keep data from the period we want to study (i.e 1980 to 2022) and only for countries with complete data i.e countries whose data don’t include NaN or null values.

# Select the columns from 1980 to 2022 (we're creating a list where the year, a number within the range 1980-2022, is converted to a string. So the result is a list of strings called `year_columns`)
year_columns = [str(year) for year in range(1980, 2023)] #range(1980,2023) includes all values from 1980 to 2023-1 i.e 2022.

# Check if all the year columns are filled (not null) for each row (i.e if, for each `year_columns` value, all corresponding values of `data` are not null)
data['all_years_filled'] = data[year_columns].notnull().all(axis=1)

# Group data by 'country_code' and count the unique 'serie_name' in each group where all_years_filled is True
series_count_by_country = data[data['all_years_filled']].groupby('country_code')['series_name'].nunique()

# Filter the country_code with 5 unique serie_name
countries_with_all_years_filled = series_count_by_country[series_count_by_country == 5].index

# Filter the data to keep only the rows with country_code present in countries_with_all_years_filled
filtered_data = data[data['country_code'].isin(countries_with_all_years_filled)]
filtered_data

	country_code	imf_country_code	country	indicator_type	series_name	1970	1971	1972	1973	1974	...	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	note	continent	all_years_filled
8	AUS	193.0	Australia	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	3.44	6.14	6.02	9.09	15.42	...	1.28	1.97	1.91	1.61	0.85	2.82	6.50	Annual average inflation	Oceania	True
12	BEL	124.0	Belgium	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	3.91	4.34	5.45	6.96	12.68	...	1.97	2.22	2.05	1.25	0.74	2.44	9.60	Annual average inflation	Europe	True
30	CAN	156.0	Canada	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	3.37	2.70	4.99	7.49	11.00	...	1.43	1.60	2.27	1.95	0.72	3.40	6.80	Annual average inflation	North America	True
31	CHE	146.0	Switzerland	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	3.62	6.57	6.66	8.75	9.77	...	-0.43	0.53	0.94	0.36	-0.73	0.58	2.80	Annual average inflation	Europe	True
45	DEU	134.0	Germany	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	3.45	5.24	5.48	7.03	6.99	...	0.49	1.71	1.73	1.35	0.51	3.14	7.90	Annual average inflation	Europe	True
...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...
726	KOR	542.0	Korea, Rep.	Inflation	Producer Price Inflation	9.18	8.60	13.95	6.97	42.10	...	-1.43	8.49	5.21	1.01	-0.46	6.38	9.01	Producer Price Index, All Commodities	Asia	True
743	NLD	138.0	Netherlands	Inflation	Producer Price Inflation	6.98	5.54	4.82	6.19	8.95	...	-2.48	4.82	2.98	0.93	1.59	12.52	26.30	Producer Price Index, All Commodities	Europe	True
744	NOR	142.0	Norway	Inflation	Producer Price Inflation	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	...	-8.02	9.28	14.82	-3.57	-10.16	37.75	64.26	Producer Price Index, All Commodities	Europe	True
745	NZL	196.0	New Zealand	Inflation	Producer Price Inflation	5.95	8.07	6.82	12.77	8.09	...	0.48	4.50	4.21	2.24	21.30	5.71	5.77	Producer Price Index, manufacturing sector	Oceania	True
760	SGP	576.0	Singapore	Inflation	Producer Price Inflation	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	NaN	...	-5.50	3.83	4.41	-3.32	-6.92	15.22	22.02	Producer Price Index, All Commodities	Asia	True

90 rows × 61 columns

# Get a list of year columns from 1980 to 2022
year_columns = [str(year) for year in range(1980, 2023)]

# Count the non-null values in each year column
filled_values_by_year = filtered_data[year_columns].count()

# Calculate the fill rate for each year by dividing the count of non-null values by the total number of rows
fill_rate_by_year = filled_values_by_year / len(filtered_data)

# Convert the fill rates to percentages
fill_rate_by_year_percentage = fill_rate_by_year * 100

# Get a list of year columns from 1980 to 2022
year_columns = [str(year) for year in range(1980, 2023)]

# Define a custom function to check if the fill rate is 100% for the given years
def is_fill_rate_100(group, years):
    filled_values_by_year = group[years].count()
    fill_rate_by_year = filled_values_by_year / len(group)
    return fill_rate_by_year.all()

# Group data by 'country_code' and check if the fill rate is 100% for years 1980-2022
country_groups = filtered_data.groupby('country_code')
countries_with_100_fill_rate = country_groups.filter(lambda group: is_fill_rate_100(group, year_columns))
countries_with_100_fill_rate.head()

	country_code	imf_country_code	country	indicator_type	series_name	1970	1971	1972	1973	1974	...	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	note	continent	all_years_filled
8	AUS	193.0	Australia	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	3.44	6.14	6.02	9.09	15.42	...	1.28	1.97	1.91	1.61	0.85	2.82	6.5	Annual average inflation	Oceania	True
12	BEL	124.0	Belgium	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	3.91	4.34	5.45	6.96	12.68	...	1.97	2.22	2.05	1.25	0.74	2.44	9.6	Annual average inflation	Europe	True
30	CAN	156.0	Canada	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	3.37	2.70	4.99	7.49	11.00	...	1.43	1.60	2.27	1.95	0.72	3.40	6.8	Annual average inflation	North America	True
31	CHE	146.0	Switzerland	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	3.62	6.57	6.66	8.75	9.77	...	-0.43	0.53	0.94	0.36	-0.73	0.58	2.8	Annual average inflation	Europe	True
45	DEU	134.0	Germany	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	3.45	5.24	5.48	7.03	6.99	...	0.49	1.71	1.73	1.35	0.51	3.14	7.9	Annual average inflation	Europe	True

5 rows × 61 columns

# Count the unique country_code in the DataFrame
unique_countries = countries_with_100_fill_rate['country_code'].nunique()

# Count the unique serie_name in the DataFrame
unique_series = countries_with_100_fill_rate['series_name'].nunique()

# Count the number of years with 100% fill rate (1980-2022)
years_with_100_fill_rate = len(year_columns)

# Print the results
print(f"Number of countries with 100% fill rate: {unique_countries}")
print(f"Number of serie_name with 100% fill rate: {unique_series}")
print(f"Number of years with 100% fill rate: {years_with_100_fill_rate}")

Number of countries with 100% fill rate: 18
Number of serie_name with 100% fill rate: 5
Number of years with 100% fill rate: 43

d=countries_with_100_fill_rate

Creating new `average_basket` and `average_basket_YYYY` columns

We create a new average_basket column initialized at 100 for all country codes and proceed to create average_basket_YYYY for years 1980 to 2022

# Add a new column 'average_basket' initialized to 100 for all country_code
d['average_basket'] = 100

# Create a new column 'average_basket_1980' by applying the inflation rate from the '1980' column to the 'average_basket' column
# Note that the values in the '1990' column are percentages, so we add 1 before multiplying
d['average_basket_1980'] = (1 + d['1980'] / 100) * d['average_basket']

# Create the 'average_basket_YYYY' columns for each year from 1981 to 2022
for year in range(1981, 2023):
    prev_year = str(year - 1)
    prev_prev_year = str(year - 2)
    current_year = str(year)

    # Check if the previous year's 'average_basket_YYYY' value is missing
    missing_prev_year = pd.isna(d[f'average_basket_{prev_year}'])

    # If the previous year's 'average_basket_YYYY' value is missing, use the value from the year before
    if missing_prev_year.any():
        d.loc[missing_prev_year, f'average_basket_{prev_year}'] = d.loc[missing_prev_year, f'average_basket_{prev_prev_year}']

    # Apply the inflation rate from the current year's column to the previous year's 'average_basket_YYYY' column
    d[f'average_basket_{current_year}'] = (1 + d[current_year] / 100) * d[f'average_basket_{prev_year}']

Plotting the average basket value over time per continent

# Iterate through unique continents and create a bar plot for each
for continent in d['continent'].unique():
    # Initialize a Plotly Figure
    fig = go.Figure()

    # Iterate through unique country codes within the current continent
    for country_code in d[d['continent'] == continent]['country_code'].unique():
        # Filter the DataFrame for the current country code
        country_data = d[d['country_code'] == country_code]

        # Extract the average_basket_YYYY columns and their corresponding years
        average_basket_columns = [f'average_basket_{year}' for year in range(1980, 2023)]
        years = list(range(1980, 2023))
        average_basket_values = country_data[average_basket_columns].values[0]

        # Add a line plot for the current country code
        fig.add_trace(go.Bar(x=years, y=average_basket_values, name=country_code))

    # Set the axis labels and title
    fig.update_layout(
        xaxis_title="Years",
        yaxis_title="Average Basket Value",
        title=f"Evolution of Average Basket Value over Time by Country Code in {continent}"
    )

    # Show the figure
    fig.show()

pd.set_option("display.max_columns", None)
d.head()

	country_code	imf_country_code	country	indicator_type	series_name	1970	1971	1972	1973	1974	1975	1976	1977	1978	1979	1980	1981	1982	1983	1984	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	note	continent	all_years_filled	average_basket	average_basket_1980	average_basket_1981	average_basket_1982	average_basket_1983	average_basket_1984	average_basket_1985	average_basket_1986	average_basket_1987	average_basket_1988	average_basket_1989	average_basket_1990	average_basket_1991	average_basket_1992	average_basket_1993	average_basket_1994	average_basket_1995	average_basket_1996	average_basket_1997	average_basket_1998	average_basket_1999	average_basket_2000	average_basket_2001	average_basket_2002	average_basket_2003	average_basket_2004	average_basket_2005	average_basket_2006	average_basket_2007	average_basket_2008	average_basket_2009	average_basket_2010	average_basket_2011	average_basket_2012	average_basket_2013	average_basket_2014	average_basket_2015	average_basket_2016	average_basket_2017	average_basket_2018	average_basket_2019	average_basket_2020	average_basket_2021	average_basket_2022
8	AUS	193.0	Australia	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	3.44	6.14	6.02	9.09	15.42	15.16	13.32	12.31	8.00	9.12	10.14	9.49	11.35	10.04	3.96	6.73	9.05	8.53	7.22	7.53	7.33	3.18	1.01	1.75	1.97	4.63	2.62	0.22	0.86	1.48	4.46	4.41	2.98	2.73	2.34	2.69	3.56	2.33	4.35	1.77	2.92	3.30	1.76	2.45	2.49	1.51	1.28	1.97	1.91	1.61	0.85	2.82	6.5	Annual average inflation	Oceania	True	100	110.14	120.592286	134.279510	147.761173	153.612516	163.950638	178.788171	194.038802	208.048403	223.714448	240.112717	247.748302	250.250559	254.629944	259.646154	271.667771	278.785467	279.398795	281.801624	285.972288	298.726652	311.900498	321.195133	329.963760	337.684912	346.768636	359.113599	367.480946	383.466367	390.253722	401.649131	414.903552	422.205854	432.549898	443.320390	450.014528	455.774714	464.753476	473.630267	481.255715	485.346388	499.033156	531.470312
12	BEL	124.0	Belgium	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	3.91	4.34	5.45	6.96	12.68	12.77	9.07	7.10	4.47	4.47	6.65	7.63	8.73	7.66	6.34	4.87	1.29	1.55	1.16	3.11	3.45	3.22	2.43	2.75	2.38	1.47	2.08	1.63	0.95	1.12	2.54	2.47	1.65	1.59	2.10	2.78	1.79	1.82	4.49	-0.05	2.19	3.53	2.84	1.11	0.34	0.56	1.97	2.22	2.05	1.25	0.74	2.44	9.6	Annual average inflation	Europe	True	100	106.65	114.787395	124.808335	134.368653	142.887626	149.846253	151.779270	154.131848	155.919778	160.768883	166.315409	171.670765	175.842365	180.678030	184.978167	187.697346	191.601451	194.724555	196.574438	198.776072	203.824984	208.859461	212.305642	215.681302	220.210609	226.332464	230.383815	234.576801	245.109299	244.986744	250.351954	259.189378	266.550356	269.509065	270.425396	271.939778	277.296992	283.452985	289.263771	292.879569	295.046877	302.246021	331.261639
30	CAN	156.0	Canada	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	3.37	2.70	4.99	7.49	11.00	10.67	7.54	7.98	8.97	9.14	10.13	12.47	10.77	5.86	4.30	3.96	4.19	4.36	4.03	4.98	4.78	5.63	1.49	1.87	0.17	2.15	1.57	1.62	1.00	1.73	2.72	2.53	2.26	2.76	1.86	2.21	2.00	2.14	2.37	0.30	1.78	2.91	1.52	0.94	1.91	1.13	1.43	1.60	2.27	1.95	0.72	3.40	6.8	Annual average inflation	North America	True	100	110.13	123.863211	137.203279	145.243391	151.488857	157.487816	164.086555	171.240729	178.141730	187.013188	195.952419	206.984540	210.068610	213.996893	214.360687	218.969442	222.407262	226.010260	228.270362	232.219440	238.535809	244.570764	250.098064	257.000770	261.780985	267.566344	272.917671	278.758109	285.364677	286.220771	291.315500	299.792781	304.349632	307.210518	313.078239	316.616023	321.143632	326.281931	333.688530	340.195457	342.644864	354.294789	378.386835
31	CHE	146.0	Switzerland	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	3.62	6.57	6.66	8.75	9.77	6.70	1.72	1.30	1.03	3.65	4.02	6.49	5.66	2.95	2.93	3.44	0.75	1.44	1.87	3.16	5.40	5.86	4.04	3.29	0.85	1.80	0.81	0.52	0.02	0.81	1.56	0.99	0.64	0.64	0.80	1.17	1.06	0.73	2.43	-0.48	0.69	0.23	-0.69	-0.22	-0.01	-1.14	-0.43	0.53	0.94	0.36	-0.73	0.58	2.8	Annual average inflation	Europe	True	100	104.02	110.770898	117.040531	120.493226	124.023678	128.290093	129.252268	131.113501	133.565323	137.785988	145.226431	153.736700	159.947662	165.209941	166.614225	169.613281	170.987149	171.876282	171.910657	173.303133	176.006662	177.749128	178.886723	180.031598	181.471850	183.595071	185.541179	186.895629	191.437193	190.518295	191.832871	192.274087	190.947395	190.527311	190.508258	188.336464	187.526617	188.520509	190.292601	190.977655	189.583518	190.683102	196.022229
45	DEU	134.0	Germany	Inflation	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	3.45	5.24	5.48	7.03	6.99	5.91	4.25	3.73	2.72	4.04	5.44	6.34	5.24	3.29	2.41	2.07	-0.13	0.25	1.27	2.78	2.70	4.05	5.06	4.47	2.69	1.71	1.45	1.94	0.91	0.59	1.44	1.98	1.42	1.03	1.67	1.55	1.58	2.30	2.63	0.31	1.10	2.08	2.01	1.50	0.91	0.51	0.49	1.71	1.73	1.35	0.51	3.14	7.9	Annual average inflation	Europe	True	100	105.44	112.124896	118.000241	121.882448	124.819815	127.403586	127.237961	127.556056	129.176018	132.767111	136.351823	141.874072	149.052900	155.715565	159.904313	162.638677	164.996938	168.197878	169.728479	170.729877	173.188387	176.617517	179.125486	180.970479	183.992686	186.844572	189.796717	194.162041	199.268503	199.886235	202.084984	206.288351	210.434747	213.591268	215.534949	216.634177	217.695685	221.418281	225.248817	228.289676	229.453954	236.658808	255.354853

# Iterate through unique continents and create a line plot for each
for continent in d['continent'].unique():
    # Initialize a Plotly Figure
    fig = go.Figure()

    # Iterate through unique country codes within the current continent
    for country_code in d[d['continent'] == continent]['country_code'].unique():
        # Filter the DataFrame for the current country code
        country_data = d[d['country_code'] == country_code]

        # Extract the average_basket_YYYY columns and their corresponding years
        average_basket_columns = [f'average_basket_{year}' for year in range(1980, 2023)]
        years = list(range(1980, 2023))
        average_basket_values = country_data[average_basket_columns].values[0]

        # Add a line plot for the current country code
        fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=years, y=average_basket_values, mode='lines', name=country_code))

    # Set the axis labels and title
    fig.update_layout(
        xaxis_title="Years",
        yaxis_title="Average Basket Value",
        title=f"Evolution of Average Basket Value over Time by Country Code in {continent}"
    )

    # Show the figure
    fig.show()

Displaying the variation of average basket value as tables

# Calculate the percentage variation between average_basket_1980 and average_basket_2022
d['variation_percent'] = ((d['average_basket_2022'] - d['average_basket_1980']) / d['average_basket_1980']) * 100

# Sort the DataFrame by continent and variation_percent in descending order
sorted_df = d.sort_values(by=['continent', 'variation_percent'], ascending=[True, False])

# Display the sorted DataFrame with only the desired columns
result = sorted_df[['continent', 'country', 'variation_percent']]
result

	continent	country	variation_percent
280	Asia	Israel	339652.331805
600	Asia	Israel	233419.019706
84	Asia	Israel	231138.321349
718	Asia	Israel	230112.324792
456	Asia	Israel	208035.234335
...	...	...	...
627	Oceania	New Zealand	455.166915
133	Oceania	New Zealand	447.176680
8	Oceania	Australia	382.540686
502	Oceania	New Zealand	370.074568
674	Oceania	Australia	297.293655

90 rows × 3 columns

# Initialize an empty dictionary to store the DataFrames for each continent
continent_dfs = {}

# Loop through the unique continents in the DataFrame
for continent in d['continent'].unique():
    # Filter the DataFrame to keep only the rows with the current continent
    continent_df = d[d['continent'] == continent]

    # Sort the DataFrame by variation_percent in descending order
    sorted_continent_df = continent_df.sort_values(by=['variation_percent'], ascending=False)

    # Keep only the desired columns
    result = sorted_continent_df[['country', 'series_name', 'variation_percent']]

    # Store the resulting DataFrame in the dictionary using the continent name as the key
    continent_dfs[continent] = result

# Example: To access the DataFrame for Europe, use continent_dfs['Europe']
continent_dfs['Europe']

	country	series_name	variation_percent
581	Spain	Official Core Consumer Price Inflation	1109.401810
744	Norway	Producer Price Inflation	903.565447
321	Norway	Energy Consumer Price Inflation	819.055966
281	Italy	Energy Consumer Price Inflation	771.382788
253	Spain	Energy Consumer Price Inflation	688.410773
260	United Kingdom	Energy Consumer Price Inflation	613.203641
276	Ireland	Energy Consumer Price Inflation	600.718995
213	Belgium	Energy Consumer Price Inflation	581.023942
427	Spain	Food Consumer Price Inflation	499.327445
256	Finland	Energy Consumer Price Inflation	488.191661
54	Spain	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	480.370060
248	Denmark	Energy Consumer Price Inflation	477.968902
85	Italy	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	448.406051
320	Netherlands	Energy Consumer Price Inflation	441.799589
699	Spain	Producer Price Inflation	435.544449
457	Italy	Food Consumer Price Inflation	388.822224
625	Netherlands	Official Core Consumer Price Inflation	387.938715
705	United Kingdom	Producer Price Inflation	335.492180
130	Norway	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	327.902340
677	Belgium	Producer Price Inflation	306.262428
626	Norway	Official Core Consumer Price Inflation	304.206083
80	Ireland	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	302.933066
695	Denmark	Producer Price Inflation	301.103787
62	United Kingdom	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	297.426677
563	Belgium	Official Core Consumer Price Inflation	294.359001
596	Ireland	Official Core Consumer Price Inflation	286.307579
500	Norway	Food Consumer Price Inflation	281.495105
434	United Kingdom	Food Consumer Price Inflation	281.472035
586	United Kingdom	Official Core Consumer Price Inflation	268.871657
245	Germany	Energy Consumer Price Inflation	242.022296
57	Finland	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	227.566542
48	Denmark	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	225.967676
584	Finland	Official Core Consumer Price Inflation	224.910902
422	Denmark	Food Consumer Price Inflation	212.771743
12	Belgium	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	210.606319
601	Italy	Official Core Consumer Price Inflation	206.401133
387	Belgium	Food Consumer Price Inflation	205.082818
702	Finland	Producer Price Inflation	203.006665
231	Switzerland	Energy Consumer Price Inflation	188.366055
719	Italy	Producer Price Inflation	175.776581
430	Finland	Food Consumer Price Inflation	175.366078
129	Netherlands	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	161.660445
743	Netherlands	Producer Price Inflation	155.931401
452	Ireland	Food Consumer Price Inflation	145.987191
45	Germany	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	142.180248
578	Denmark	Official Core Consumer Price Inflation	133.505196
694	Germany	Producer Price Inflation	132.366053
576	Germany	Official Core Consumer Price Inflation	131.616855
419	Germany	Food Consumer Price Inflation	125.992622
499	Netherlands	Food Consumer Price Inflation	100.181801
31	Switzerland	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	88.446673
715	Ireland	Producer Price Inflation	82.312377
568	Switzerland	Official Core Consumer Price Inflation	80.766953
405	Switzerland	Food Consumer Price Inflation	64.247775
686	Switzerland	Producer Price Inflation	26.283409

def display_side_by_side(*args):
    html_str = ''
    for df in args:
        html_str += df.to_html()
    display_html(html_str.replace('table', 'table style="display:inline;margin-right:10px"'), raw=True)

# Convert the dictionary of continent DataFrames into a list of DataFrames
continent_df_list = list(continent_dfs.values())

# Display all DataFrames side by side in a single Jupyter notebook cell
display_side_by_side(*continent_df_list)

	country	series_name	variation_percent
323	New Zealand	Energy Consumer Price Inflation	858.347139
209	Australia	Energy Consumer Price Inflation	537.008172
559	Australia	Official Core Consumer Price Inflation	520.677132
745	New Zealand	Producer Price Inflation	512.137188
383	Australia	Food Consumer Price Inflation	461.004925
627	New Zealand	Official Core Consumer Price Inflation	455.166915
133	New Zealand	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	447.176680
8	Australia	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	382.540686
502	New Zealand	Food Consumer Price Inflation	370.074568
674	Australia	Producer Price Inflation	297.293655

	country	series_name	variation_percent
581	Spain	Official Core Consumer Price Inflation	1109.401810
744	Norway	Producer Price Inflation	903.565447
321	Norway	Energy Consumer Price Inflation	819.055966
281	Italy	Energy Consumer Price Inflation	771.382788
253	Spain	Energy Consumer Price Inflation	688.410773
260	United Kingdom	Energy Consumer Price Inflation	613.203641
276	Ireland	Energy Consumer Price Inflation	600.718995
213	Belgium	Energy Consumer Price Inflation	581.023942
427	Spain	Food Consumer Price Inflation	499.327445
256	Finland	Energy Consumer Price Inflation	488.191661
54	Spain	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	480.370060
248	Denmark	Energy Consumer Price Inflation	477.968902
85	Italy	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	448.406051
320	Netherlands	Energy Consumer Price Inflation	441.799589
699	Spain	Producer Price Inflation	435.544449
457	Italy	Food Consumer Price Inflation	388.822224
625	Netherlands	Official Core Consumer Price Inflation	387.938715
705	United Kingdom	Producer Price Inflation	335.492180
130	Norway	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	327.902340
677	Belgium	Producer Price Inflation	306.262428
626	Norway	Official Core Consumer Price Inflation	304.206083
80	Ireland	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	302.933066
695	Denmark	Producer Price Inflation	301.103787
62	United Kingdom	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	297.426677
563	Belgium	Official Core Consumer Price Inflation	294.359001
596	Ireland	Official Core Consumer Price Inflation	286.307579
500	Norway	Food Consumer Price Inflation	281.495105
434	United Kingdom	Food Consumer Price Inflation	281.472035
586	United Kingdom	Official Core Consumer Price Inflation	268.871657
245	Germany	Energy Consumer Price Inflation	242.022296
57	Finland	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	227.566542
48	Denmark	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	225.967676
584	Finland	Official Core Consumer Price Inflation	224.910902
422	Denmark	Food Consumer Price Inflation	212.771743
12	Belgium	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	210.606319
601	Italy	Official Core Consumer Price Inflation	206.401133
387	Belgium	Food Consumer Price Inflation	205.082818
702	Finland	Producer Price Inflation	203.006665
231	Switzerland	Energy Consumer Price Inflation	188.366055
719	Italy	Producer Price Inflation	175.776581
430	Finland	Food Consumer Price Inflation	175.366078
129	Netherlands	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	161.660445
743	Netherlands	Producer Price Inflation	155.931401
452	Ireland	Food Consumer Price Inflation	145.987191
45	Germany	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	142.180248
578	Denmark	Official Core Consumer Price Inflation	133.505196
694	Germany	Producer Price Inflation	132.366053
576	Germany	Official Core Consumer Price Inflation	131.616855
419	Germany	Food Consumer Price Inflation	125.992622
499	Netherlands	Food Consumer Price Inflation	100.181801
31	Switzerland	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	88.446673
715	Ireland	Producer Price Inflation	82.312377
568	Switzerland	Official Core Consumer Price Inflation	80.766953
405	Switzerland	Food Consumer Price Inflation	64.247775
686	Switzerland	Producer Price Inflation	26.283409

	country	series_name	variation_percent
230	Canada	Energy Consumer Price Inflation	612.383907
30	Canada	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	243.581980
567	Canada	Official Core Consumer Price Inflation	230.416910
404	Canada	Food Consumer Price Inflation	226.969742
685	Canada	Producer Price Inflation	207.788675

	country	series_name	variation_percent
280	Israel	Energy Consumer Price Inflation	339652.331805
600	Israel	Official Core Consumer Price Inflation	233419.019706
84	Israel	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	231138.321349
718	Israel	Producer Price Inflation	230112.324792
456	Israel	Food Consumer Price Inflation	208035.234335
466	Korea, Rep.	Food Consumer Price Inflation	653.306811
95	Korea, Rep.	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	413.634091
290	Korea, Rep.	Energy Consumer Price Inflation	404.829888
606	Korea, Rep.	Official Core Consumer Price Inflation	374.303898
726	Korea, Rep.	Producer Price Inflation	224.097771
519	Singapore	Food Consumer Price Inflation	118.694805
153	Singapore	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	115.129871
340	Singapore	Energy Consumer Price Inflation	112.032545
284	Japan	Energy Consumer Price Inflation	89.921177
460	Japan	Food Consumer Price Inflation	54.927694
643	Singapore	Official Core Consumer Price Inflation	46.444439
88	Japan	Headline Consumer Price Inflation	39.795003
603	Japan	Official Core Consumer Price Inflation	37.483994
722	Japan	Producer Price Inflation	11.759990
760	Singapore	Producer Price Inflation	-37.935164

Visualising the variation of consumer energy prices inflation and consumer food prices inflation on a map

# Concatenate all the continent DataFrames with the 'Energy Consumer Price Inflation' series_name
all_continents_energy_inflation = pd.concat([
    continent_df[continent_df['series_name'] == 'Energy Consumer Price Inflation']
    for continent_df in continent_dfs.values()
])

fig = go.Figure(data=go.Choropleth(
    locations=all_continents_energy_inflation['country'],
    locationmode='country names',
    z=all_continents_energy_inflation['variation_percent'],
    text=all_continents_energy_inflation['country'],
    colorscale='Magma',
    autocolorscale=False,
    reversescale=False,
    marker_line_color='darkgray',
    marker_line_width=0.5,
    colorbar=dict(
        title='Variation</br> (in %) </br> of consumer energy</br> prices inflation(1984-2022)',
        x=1
    )
))

fig.update_geos(
    showcountries=True,
    showcoastlines=True,
    showframe=False,
    projection_type='natural earth',
)

fig.update_layout(
    title=dict(
        text="Variation (in percentage) of consumer energy prices inflation (1984-2022)",
        xanchor='center',
        x=0.5,
        y=0.95
    ),
    geo=dict(
        showframe=False,
        showcoastlines=True,
        showcountries=True,
        projection_type='natural earth',
        bgcolor='rgba(243, 243, 243, 0.5)'
    ),
    margin=dict(t=60, l=20, r=20, b=20)
)

fig.show()

# Concatenate all the continent DataFrames with the 'Energy Consumer Price Inflation' series_name
all_continents_food_inflation = pd.concat([
    continent_df[continent_df['series_name'] == 'Food Consumer Price Inflation']
    for continent_df in continent_dfs.values()
])

fig = go.Figure(data=go.Choropleth(
    locations=all_continents_food_inflation['country'],
    locationmode='country names',
    z=all_continents_food_inflation['variation_percent'],
    text=all_continents_food_inflation['country'],
    colorscale='icefire',
    autocolorscale=False,
    reversescale=False,
    marker_line_color='darkgray',
    marker_line_width=0.5,
    colorbar=dict(
        title='Variation</br> (in percentage) in </br>food consumer </br>price inflation</br>(1984-2022)',
        x=1
    )
))

fig.update_geos(
    showcountries=True,
    showcoastlines=True,
    showframe=False,
    projection_type='natural earth',
)

fig.update_layout(
    title=dict(
        text="Variation (in percentage) of food consumer price inflation (1990-2022)",
        xanchor='center',
        x=0.5,
        y=0.95
    ),
    geo=dict(
        showframe=False,
        showcoastlines=True,
        showcountries=True,
        projection_type='natural earth',
        bgcolor='rgba(243, 243, 243, 0.5)'
    ),
    margin=dict(t=50, l=20, r=20, b=20)
)

fig.show()

Forecasting consumer food prices inflation in the UK from 2023 to 2034

We want to try and forecast consumer food prices inflation in the UK from 2023 to 2034. We use a very simplistic model for the task, the ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average ) model¹.

uk_food_inflation=d.query("country=='United Kingdom' & series_name=='Food Consumer Price Inflation'").filter(regex='^\d{4}$')
uk_food_inflation

	1970	1971	1972	1973	1974	1975	1976	1977	1978	1979	1980	1981	1982	1983	1984	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
434	6.9	11.47	8.92	15.37	18.02	24.97	19.85	18.79	7.81	12.62	13.56	8.69	7.76	3.67	5.88	4.02	3.33	3.13	3.37	5.62	8.06	5.28	2.14	1.66	0.86	3.65	3.16	-0.17	1.03	0.25	-0.48	3.76	0.82	1.29	0.79	1.52	2.4	4.51	9.16	5.47	3.42	5.5	3.25	3.73	-0.19	-2.58	-2.38	2.25	2.08	10.93	0.72	0.3	10.35

uk_food_inflation.dtypes

1970    float64
1971    float64
1972    float64
1973    float64
1974    float64
1975    float64
1976    float64
1977    float64
1978    float64
1979    float64
1980    float64
1981    float64
1982    float64
1983    float64
1984    float64
1985    float64
1986    float64
1987    float64
1988    float64
1989    float64
1990    float64
1991    float64
1992    float64
1993    float64
1994    float64
1995    float64
1996    float64
1997    float64
1998    float64
1999    float64
2000    float64
2001    float64
2002    float64
2003    float64
2004    float64
2005    float64
2006    float64
2007    float64
2008    float64
2009    float64
2010    float64
2011    float64
2012    float64
2013    float64
2014    float64
2015    float64
2016    float64
2017    float64
2018    float64
2019    float64
2020    float64
2021    float64
2022    float64
dtype: object

str_years=uk_food_inflation.columns.tolist()
years=[datetime.datetime.strptime(y,"%Y") for y in str_years]
yearly_inflation=uk_food_inflation.values.tolist()[0]

model = ARIMA(yearly_inflation,dates=years, order=(1, 1, 1))
model_fit = model.fit()
forecast = model_fit.forecast(steps=12)

/home/runner/.local/lib/python3.10/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/base/tsa_model.py:473: ValueWarning:

No frequency information was provided, so inferred frequency AS-JAN will be used.

/home/runner/.local/lib/python3.10/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/base/tsa_model.py:473: ValueWarning:

No frequency information was provided, so inferred frequency AS-JAN will be used.

ax=sns.lineplot(x=range(2023, 2035), y=forecast,markers=True)
ax.set(xlabel='Years',
       ylabel='Food consumer price inflation',
       title='Forecast for food consumer price inflation in UK (2023-2034)')

TypeError: ufunc 'isfinite' not supported for the input types, and the inputs could not be safely coerced to any supported types according to the casting rule ''safe''

Based on this very simplistic model, one might conclude consumer food inflation is set to decrease steadily from 2023 onwards.

Footnotes

It is simplistic because it assumes stationarity of the modelled time series, which is an assumption that might not hold here!↩︎